A Post Mortem on The 2024 Election

This election has many lessons to learn on both sides of the aisle.  Before I begin I want to be honest about who I am.  I am a 38 year old blue collar worker in Michigan, who also is a landlord.  Over the last 18 years I have been in every earning quintile except the top. I voted for Gary Johnson in 2012 and 2016 and for Jo Jorgensen in 2020.  I am predominantly anti-war, pro free unregulated speech, and pro 2nd amendment. I want a balanced federal budget and the national debt paid down. I identify as a libertarian.  The Republicans do not have a right to my vote, nor do the democrats. At the start of this campaign I was leaning heavily towards RFK JR with hopes of breaking apart the 2 party system.

Lessons Learned For The Democrats:

Where to begin….

Have an actual primary:

In the 2020 election, they ended their primary process early to coalesce around Joe Biden.  This was a mistake.  Only 3 states had voted and the party machine put extreme pressure on Biden’s opponents to drop out, Pete Buttigieg in particular.  Had the campaign gone all the way through the primary process the Democrats may have had a stronger candidate.

They refused to hold a primary for 2024. This was the largest mistake. It was absolutely clear that Joe Biden was in severe mental decline and they chose to cover it up until they couldn’t which was at the debate.  If they had held a fair primary it is highly likely that RFK Jr or Tulsi Gabbard would have been selected as the nominee instead of the DNC coronating Harris.

Don’t Politically Persecute Your Opponents:

The democrats went after Trump in an unprecedented manner.  The lawfare of the Stormy Daniels trial, the sexual assault civil case, and the trial over the valuation of his property were complete farces.  These trials were designed first to keep him in court so he couldn’t campaign, then to bankrupt him, and then to imprison him.  No person has ever been charged in the way he was.  These actions fired up the people who were already Trump supporters and many others who believed these to be moves of a banana republic. To highlight their Banana Republic farce they also attempted to get him off the ballot in several states.

To a lesser degree they also used lawfare against RFK Jr.  The Democrats ran a lawfare campaign against RFK Jr when he decided to run as an independent. They challenged his signature gathering, and even sued him for the address he used for his principal residence on the forms.  They did not want him to be on the ballot.  They tied him up in court to prevent him from campaigning.  Then when he did what they thought was unthinkable and endorsed President Trump, they sued to make him stay on the ballot in the states he already had access. Kennedy was effective at getting his supporters to back Trump.

Actually Talk To The American People:

Kamala Harris avoided the media, the press, and the American people.  The first 2/3 of her campaign she was mostly in hiding. A presidential candidate needs to take every opportunity to talk to the American people.  Turning down Rogan in the final days was a massive mistake.

Run A Charismatic Politician

Kamala Harris is not charismatic like Obama. This comes back to the primaries. Running an actual primary would have prevented this loss.  You can’t run a campaign based solely on identity politics. The Democrats put themselves in a difficult position.  Biden picked Harris as his running mate during the BLM protests specifically because of her gender and race.  She was not a great politician, but she checked those boxes.  With her as the running mate when they decided to Coup Biden, the DNC couldn’t just kick her out without doing an actual primary, which they didn’t want to do, so they ran her.

Select A Competent Running Mate:

I can’t fathom who looked at Tim Walz and said “Yeah that guy will help the ticket!” There wasn’t a state advantage due to MN being solid blue.  Walz presents himself as a bumbling “knucklehead”.  He isn’t a thought leader on any major issues.  You can’t look at Walz and say that he is remotely close to JD Vance.  This guy also has the same liability of Joe Biden, he has a low net worth for his age and status.  Joe Biden had a new worth of $24,500 in 2008.  At the time he was 65, had been the vice president or a senator for over 4 decades, and was married to a high earning woman.  This level of net worth shows he doesn’t practice thrift.  If he can’t balance his own budget how can I trust him with the budget of the American people? Tim Walz has a net worth of between 117K and 330K. This is below average and someone with below average finances should not be running our country.

Don’t Gas Light:

Virtually their entire campaign was gas lighting.  Kamala repeatedly talked about Trump hiding from the media, when he was doing far more events then her. He was also doing unscripted events with unfriendly media, while she was doing scripted events with media.  She talked about his rallies being small, while hers existed only because she paid and bussed in supporters to concerts that she also happened to be at.  She said he wants to undo the constitution while she actively campaigned to take guns away from the American people, censor X, and imprison her political opponent.

Run A Campaign on Actual Policies:

Most of the Democrat campaign was on NOT being Donald Trump and “Orange Man Bad”.  The death blow from my perspective was really being on “The View” and stating that she would not do anything different than Joe Biden has done.  They ran the campaign focused on her being a woman and a person of color.  Replace Kamala Harris with a white man and the democrats would have lost in a massive landslide.

What they did well:

Fundraising: The Democrats are fantastic at fundraising. A higher percentage of their voters donate to campaigns and they get their high net worth donors to give a lot.  With the exception of Musk, virtually all the richest people in the US identify as Democrats. The Democrats outraised the Republicans by an almost 3:1 margin for the presidency and the Senate.

Mobilized women voters: The Harris campaign outperformed Trump amongst women.  Women were more likely to vote for Harris because she was a woman and because of her stance and promises (although empty) on abortion.

Took advantage of the media: The mainstream media works for the DNC.  Not only did the Democrats have far more money to spend, but they also enjoyed the media consistently praising Harris and knocking Trump.  The most egregious was with the “no tax on tips” concept. The very same networks reported that Trump’s plan for no tax on tips would add to the deficit said that Harris’ plan for no tax on tips just weeks later was a major support for the working people of this country.

Debate: I was shocked to see Harris’ performance in the debate.  To be clear the moderators were working for her campaign.  They fact checked (incorrectly) Trump several times and fact checked her zero times.  Regardless, Trump allowed himself to get defensive and off message and Kamala did not.  I will say her exaggerated facial expressions were extremely off putting and without those her performance would have been better. They also did well to frame the debate as they did. They insisted on it being hosted by a friendly network.  Harris would have never debated on Fox News with Tucker Carlson as the moderator.

Lessons Learned For The Republicans:

Ok, that was rough for the Democrats, now it’s the Republican’s Turn:

Mitigate Political Weaknesses:

The 2 main points that are consistently brought up are that Trump hates the LGBTQ community and that he is anti-abortion, and that Republicans will strip away abortion rights.  Many on the left view the abortion issue the same way people on the Right see the gun issue.  When Republicans talk about Abortion restrictions the Left view it the same as when the Democrats talk about confiscating your AR-15s.

Trump got saddled with the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe, even though now outside of a constitutional amendment, there is nothing that can be done for abortion on the federal level.  It is a states issue and there is a wide variance of how they are handled. In Michigan abortion rights are codified in the Michigan state constitution.  What the Republicans should have done going into 2020 and certainly by 2022 and 2024 was propose from the RNC a common sense abortion position on their platform for the states to adopt.  Something like 12 weeks across the board with exceptions for rape and incest to 20 weeks, and no restrictions on life of the mother.  Be crystal clear that the extreme idea of prosecuting mothers for getting an abortion, especially if they leave their home state with large restriction to go to a state with lose restrictions for an abortion will not happen.

Trump needs to be more vocal about his support for the LGBTQ community. What’s interesting is he supports the LGBTQ community more than any other Republican and more than any Democrat who has been elected president.  He needed to talk about support for gay marriage and keeping hate crime legislation in place.

If the Republicans can mitigate the fear on Abortion and Gay rights so that the left doesn’t view a Republican win as an existential threat, then their winning messages on foreign policy and economics will be more accepted.

His next liability is the attacks of racism.  His campaign needed to do a better job of highlighting his outreach to black voters and how his economic plan improves the lives of Black Americans. Criminal justice reform, along with mass pardons for non violent criminals would be a winning talking point.  Solid plans for improving failing school districts is another.

Down Ballot Voting:

One of the biggest lessons out of this election for Republicans is down ballot voting. In virtually every Senate race the Democrats outperformed Harris, but the Republicans under performed Trump.  The Republicans could have and should have won the Senate seats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.  These 4 seats would have given the Republicans 57 seats with JD available for a tie breaker if ever needed.  This would also pave the way for a potential 60 seat super majority in 2026.  In Ohio even though Bernie Moreno won, he only won by under 4 points, while Trump carried the state by 12.

• Michigan (@ 99%): Trump won by 180,000 votes,  Rogers lost by 21,000 votes: Total split: 201,000 votes.
• Wisconsin (@ 99%): Trump won by 30,000 votes, Hovde lost by 29,000 votes: Total split: 59,000 votes.
• Nevada  (@ 96%) Trump won by 46,000 votes, Brown lost by 21,000 votes: Total split: 67,000 votes.
• Arizona (@ 82% Trump is projected to win at 182,000 votes currently, Lake is losing by 33,000 votes: Total split: 215,000 votes

A big part of this is straight ticket voting.  Democrats are more likely to utilize straight ticket voting, while Republicans are more likely to vote each race in the ballot. This opens up the likelihood of losing votes. If The Republicans want to make traction they need to embrace straight ticket voting and get that message to all their voters.

The Push for early voting was a massive win.  The Republic party used to urge everyone to vote on election day.  This leads to long lines and people choosing not to vote. This leads to people who have life demands on a Tuesday not voting.  The Republicans adjusted and had a large push to vote early. In Michigan I received several mailers urging me to vote early and had 2 door knockers. If the Republicans can push for straight ticket voting like they did early voting this cycle, they will be more successful with Senate and House races in the future.

Being Outspent:

Spending on down ballot races: (As of 10/16, the most recent filing:)

Arizona Senate:

• Democrat Ruben Gallego spent $54.6 Million, Kari Lake spent $18.1 Million
• Outside money spent $55.3 million for Gallego and $22.9 for Lake.

Nevada Senate:

• Democrat Jacky Rosen spent $43.2 Million, Republican Sam Brown spent $17.4 Million.
• Outside money spent $55 Million for Rosen and $45.6 for Brown.

Michigan Senate:

• Democrat Elissa Slotkin spent $43.8 Million, Mike Rogers spent $8.5 Million.
• Outside groups spent $78.2 million supporting Rogers/Opposing Slotkin, while they spent $63.3 Supporting Slotkin/ Opposing Rogers.  Even through the outside money was in Rogers favor, it did not come close to making up the deficit his campaign faced. As a Michigander I saw ads against Rogers at a 2 to 1 and maybe 3 to 1 ratio.

Wisconsin Senate:

• Democrat Tammy Baldwin spent $49.3 Million, Eric Hovde spent $25.8 Million.
• Outside money was virtually tied with money spent for Baldwin at $59.4 million and money spent on Hovde at $61.3 Million.

To make matters worse in Wisconsin $20 Million of the $25.8 Million spent by Hovde was candidate self financing, which means he was really outraised by 10:1 instead of 2:1.

In all of these races the Republicans were greatly outspent, yet the races were very close.  If the Republicans spent the same amount of money as the Democrats they would have won these raises. which brings us to our next issue:

Fundraising:

The Republicans were outraised in the presidential race by an almost 3:1 margin with Kamala raising $1 billion and Trump raising $381 Million. We just looked at how they were outraised in all the close Senate races, and they were outraised in house races as well. The Republican party needs to take a deep internal look at how it fundraises, because this is not sustainable.  I get how the outside money factor can be influenced by the very wealthy, but the candidate committees aren’t.  How are the Republicans doing this bad at fundraising compared to the Democrats?

Some of the tight house races that haven’t been called yet that will determine whether the Republicans have control of the house:

• Iowa 4: Democrats $5 million to $3.6 Million Republicans
• Arizona 1: Democrats $4.6 million to $3.4 million Republicans
• Arizona 6: Democrats $6.3 million to $5.0 million Republicans
• Ohio 9:Democrats $3.9 million to $0.9 million Republicans
• CA 13: Democrats $4.6 million to $3.2 million Republicans
• CA 22: Democrats $5.1 million to $3.7 million Republicans
• CA 27: Democrats $8.1 million to $4.2 million Republicans
• CA 41: Democrats $9.1 million to $5.8 million Republicans
• OR 5: Democrats $5.8 million to $4.9 million Republicans
• AK 1: Democrats $10.7 million to $1.8 million Republicans

I will say that there is some shady stuff going on with the ActBlue fundraising.  There are several instances of working class people who are living paycheck to paycheck being recorded as donating thousands of dollars to ActBlue with hundreds of small donations each.  This is currently being investigated.  Regardless of if the Democrats are engaged in shenanigans here, the Republican party should be able to fundraise much better than it is. The Republicans viewed this election as an existential threat.  Trump was shot in PA.  He was indicted on “trumped up” charges.  If this is the best the Republicans can do with fundraising, they are doomed.

75 million people voted for Trump.  For every Trump voter only $5.08 was raised for his campaign, while Kamala raised $13.80 per voter. Across the senate $822 Million was raised by Democrats and Independents who caucus with Democrats to $377 Million for Republicans.  Still comparing to Presidential voters this is $11.41 for Democrats and $5.02 for Republicans.

The Republicans must get their act together with fundraising.  In Solid Democrat states it is more likely the Republicans spend nothing, while the Democrats will spend heavily in Solid Red States.  The Democrats spent $76 million in Texas and $29 million in Florida on the Senate race, while Republicans spent just 900K in New York and $3 Million in New Jersey.  The Democrats are largely competing across the whole map, while the Republicans are not.  One of the most interesting campaigns to me is Vermont.  Bernie Sanders spent $32.4 million while his Republican opponent spent $400,000.  Here’s a chart I made breaking down recorded candidate spending for each race.

The Republicans should be embarrassed by this fundraising performance.  They needed $120 million for the 4 main swing states (Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin). $75 million would have done it. $1 per Trump voter. On top of those 4 swing states that would have 100% been won with equal fundraising,  there are 4 other races where more money could have made the difference:

Virginia: OK, Virginia has been solidly Democrat, but the Senate came within 8 points and roughly 350,000 votes.  The Republicans were outspent 17.3 million to 5.9 million.  Could spending another $10 million have garnered 350,000 votes? Maybe not, but it certainly could have made the race close enough that people in future elections view Virginia as a swing state.

New Jersey: Even though Trump lost NJ, losing by just 4 points and 225,000 votes makes the state competitive in the future.  The Senate candidate lost by 9 points and was outspent $9.3 million to $3 million.  $6 million flipping roughly 110,000 votes could have happened.  Remember too that positive ads for Senate candidates are also delivering the message of the President, so not only could the Senate candidate have matched Trumps performance, but could have helped get him over the edge.

New Mexico: Now you are laughing at me, but hear me out.  Trump lost new Mexico by 54,000 votes or almost 6 points.  The Senate was lost by 10 points or 90,000 votes.  The Democrats outspent in the Senate race $11.7 million to $5.6 million.  If we look back at New Mexico historically Trump lost by 8.3 points in 2016, BUT Gary Johnson the libertarian candidate was the former governor and took 9.3% of the vote.  The vast majority of those voters without Johnson should have gone to Trump.  New Mexico should be competitive. I think the national campaign and the senate campaign chose to not allocate resources here.

Minnesota: 16% Loss: Outspent $20,600,000 to $600,000.  That’s not a typo. In MN the Democrats spent 34X the amount of money on the race and only won by 16 points, roughly 500,000 votes.  Could spending $10 million have flipped this race?

If I were in charge of the RNC I would send personalized mail merged cards requesting a donation of:

$25 for the presidential committee, $10 for the Senate, $5 for the house, and $10 for the RNC.  $50 total.  Each Republican voter needs to internalize the need to donate.  The Democrats have been far more successful at turning their voters into donors than the Republicans. I received only 1 mailer asking for a Senate donation.  These mailers need to show the difference: The average Democrat voter donates $25 to the presidential and senate races, while the average Republican voter donates just $10.  Advocating for the importance of recurring donations is important as well. Recurring donations give a steady, predictable supply of funds and ensures more total dollars from each donor. Turning a one time $25 donation into 12 months of $25 each changes the game.

What they did well:

Every one of these items could be seen as putting Trump over the top:

Mobilizing the Amish in PA: This won the state of PA. Without the support of the Amish and the tireless work of Scott Pressler PA would have been lost.

Picking JD Vance: I originally wasn’t a fan of the JD Vance pick. He turned out to be a powerhouse with ice water in his veins similar to Rand Paul. He did fantastic in hostile interviews and made his case to the American people in front of every microphone he could find. JD Vance will be a better candidate for President than Trump and has a decent chance to win in 2028 and 2032. A great pick for his running mate would be Tulsi Gabbard, then she runs in 2036.

Joe Rogan: Inside of the last week of the campaign Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Elon Musk all appeared on the largest podcast on Earth to make the case for Donald Trump.  All spoke for 3 hours.  Try to find a 3 hour long unscripted interview of Harris, Walz, or Biden.

Improved ground game: I live in a rural area of Michigan. I had 2 door knockers to urge me to vote and vote early for Trump. I have only had 1 door knocker in the last 12 years and that was a candidate for a house seat, while I was a registered precinct delegate for the republican party (I was part of the 2012 movement to flip the party to being Rand Paul republicans from the Neocons).

Early voting: I already mentioned this, but the early voting was a massive win.  The drastic change in early voting participants of Republican voters was a serious win for the party.

Lessons For both parties:

Echo Chambers:

The effect of the echo chambers is real.  The left has been in a meltdown all week over the belief that they had this in the bag.  Why did they believe this? Because they watch national news that is a mouthpiece for the DNC.  Because they only talk to people who agree with them.  The same can be said on the right.

I viewed many YouTube videos of people expecting a bigger win for Trump.  The idea was the swing states would be 5 to 7 point wins.  That Virginia, New Jersey, and Minnesota would flip.  That Trump would win the popular vote by 5%+.

We have gotten to a point in American politics where algorithms show us what we want to see and where we demonize people who don’t agree with us. If you don’t talk to people who disagree with you you can’t see the nation objectively.  It doesn’t help that most Democrat voters are city dwellers and most Republican voters are rural.

Polls:

The polls lie, both intentionally and unintentionally. Pollsters take their samples and then adjust the weight of their responses based on the number of republicans, democrats, and independents who voted in the prior election…or they balance it however they want.  Many polls in this cycle greatly over sampled voters who identified as democrats.  The real data to take from the polls is typically not who it shows they are voting for, but the data revealed in the cross tabs about how people of different ages, races, and genders view different issues and who they think is better on those issues.  Another question that pollsters should ask is “who do you think your neighbor is voting for” which can give additional data.  Too much trust is put in these polls and too many pollsters put their fingers on the scales to give the result they want to show.  Additionally the poll aggregators choose which polls to include and not include in their aggregate.  If a race is showing it is mostly within a point across 5 polls, but 1 pollster releases an outlier and it gets included, then it appears that that candidate has a major advantage.

Commission on Presidential Debates:

What happened with the debates was unfair to the American people.  Historically we have had 3 debates, this season we had 1, and it was a farce hosted by a biased media organization.  We need to bring back the commission on presidential debates and have 3 debates with non biased moderators. Both parties should embrace having multiple real debates.

What lessons do you think are important for each party to learn? What did I miss?