You May Live Longer Than You Think -Action Economics

In The US The average life expectancy is 76 years old. This average life expectancy is average though, and that means the statistic contains some additional information that is absolutely relevant. An average across everyone includes infant mortality. It includes people who smoke, people who drink heavily, people who never exercise, and people who are significantly overweight. Therefore, people who don’t smoke or drink, exercise regularly, and aren’t overweight will likely be on the right side of the bell curve in life expectancy. I firmly believe that for people in this cohort, living to over 90 will be the norm, not the exception.

This longevity has major implications for retirement planning.

How Long Do People Actually Live?

The Social Security Administration posts actuarial tables that show the probability of death at every age across averages. The chart starts with 100,000 people who survive birth and going through 110 years of age. People often (and wrongly) think that they will live to the average lifespan, failing to take into account the survivor bias. The average life expectancy is for the 100,000 people at birth. For someone who is already 65 years old, their lifespan is longer than 11 more years.

Here is the most recent actuary table published by the Social Security Administration, for people born in 2020. The life expectancy column shows how many more years of life the people left in this group are expected to have.

Exact age	Male			Female
Exact age	Death probability ^a	Number of lives ^b	Life expectancy	Death probability ^a	Number of lives ^b	Life expectancy
0	0.005837	100,000	74.12	0.004907	100,000	79.78
1	0.000410	99,416	73.55	0.000316	99,509	79.17
2	0.000254	99,376	72.58	0.000196	99,478	78.19
3	0.000207	99,350	71.60	0.000160	99,458	77.21
4	0.000167	99,330	70.62	0.000129	99,442	76.22
5	0.000141	99,313	69.63	0.000109	99,430	75.23
6	0.000123	99,299	68.64	0.000100	99,419	74.24
7	0.000113	99,287	67.65	0.000096	99,409	73.25
8	0.000108	99,276	66.65	0.000092	99,399	72.25
9	0.000114	99,265	65.66	0.000089	99,390	71.26
10	0.000127	99,254	64.67	0.000092	99,381	70.27
11	0.000146	99,241	63.68	0.000104	99,372	69.27
12	0.000174	99,227	62.69	0.000123	99,362	68.28
13	0.000228	99,209	61.70	0.000145	99,349	67.29
14	0.000312	99,187	60.71	0.000173	99,335	66.30
15	0.000435	99,156	59.73	0.000210	99,318	65.31
16	0.000604	99,113	58.76	0.000257	99,297	64.32
17	0.000814	99,053	57.79	0.000314	99,271	63.34
18	0.001051	98,972	56.84	0.000384	99,240	62.36
19	0.001250	98,868	55.90	0.000440	99,202	61.38
20	0.001398	98,745	54.97	0.000485	99,159	60.41
21	0.001524	98,607	54.04	0.000533	99,111	59.44
22	0.001612	98,456	53.12	0.000574	99,058	58.47
23	0.001682	98,298	52.21	0.000617	99,001	57.50
24	0.001747	98,132	51.30	0.000655	98,940	56.54
25	0.001812	97,961	50.39	0.000700	98,875	55.58
26	0.001884	97,783	49.48	0.000743	98,806	54.61
27	0.001974	97,599	48.57	0.000796	98,732	53.66
28	0.002070	97,406	47.66	0.000851	98,654	52.70
29	0.002172	97,205	46.76	0.000914	98,570	51.74
30	0.002275	96,994	45.86	0.000976	98,480	50.79
31	0.002368	96,773	44.97	0.001041	98,383	49.84
32	0.002441	96,544	44.07	0.001118	98,281	48.89
33	0.002517	96,308	43.18	0.001186	98,171	47.94
34	0.002590	96,066	42.29	0.001241	98,055	47.00
35	0.002673	95,817	41.39	0.001306	97,933	46.06
36	0.002791	95,561	40.50	0.001386	97,805	45.12
37	0.002923	95,294	39.62	0.001472	97,670	44.18
38	0.003054	95,016	38.73	0.001549	97,526	43.24
39	0.003207	94,725	37.85	0.001637	97,375	42.31
40	0.003333	94,422	36.97	0.001735	97,215	41.38
41	0.003464	94,107	36.09	0.001850	97,047	40.45
42	0.003587	93,781	35.21	0.001950	96,867	39.52
43	0.003735	93,445	34.34	0.002072	96,678	38.60
44	0.003911	93,096	33.46	0.002217	96,478	37.68
45	0.004137	92,732	32.59	0.002383	96,264	36.76
46	0.004452	92,348	31.73	0.002573	96,035	35.85
47	0.004823	91,937	30.87	0.002777	95,788	34.94
48	0.005214	91,493	30.01	0.002984	95,522	34.04
49	0.005594	91,016	29.17	0.003210	95,237	33.14
50	0.005998	90,507	28.33	0.003476	94,931	32.24
51	0.006500	89,964	27.50	0.003793	94,601	31.35
52	0.007081	89,380	26.67	0.004136	94,242	30.47
53	0.007711	88,747	25.86	0.004495	93,852	29.59
54	0.008394	88,062	25.06	0.004870	93,430	28.72
55	0.009109	87,323	24.27	0.005261	92,975	27.86
56	0.009881	86,528	23.48	0.005714	92,486	27.01
57	0.010687	85,673	22.71	0.006227	91,958	26.16
58	0.011566	84,757	21.95	0.006752	91,385	25.32
59	0.012497	83,777	21.21	0.007327	90,768	24.49
60	0.013485	82,730	20.47	0.007926	90,103	23.67
61	0.014595	81,614	19.74	0.008544	89,389	22.85
62	0.015702	80,423	19.03	0.009173	88,625	22.04
63	0.016836	79,160	18.32	0.009841	87,812	21.24
64	0.017908	77,828	17.63	0.010529	86,948	20.45
65	0.018943	76,434	16.94	0.011265	86,032	19.66
66	0.020103	74,986	16.26	0.012069	85,063	18.88
67	0.021345	73,479	15.58	0.012988	84,037	18.10
68	0.022750	71,910	14.91	0.014032	82,945	17.34
69	0.024325	70,274	14.24	0.015217	81,781	16.58
70	0.026137	68,565	13.59	0.016634	80,537	15.82
71	0.028125	66,773	12.94	0.018294	79,197	15.08
72	0.030438	64,895	12.30	0.020175	77,748	14.36
73	0.033249	62,919	11.67	0.022321	76,180	13.64
74	0.036975	60,827	11.05	0.025030	74,479	12.94
75	0.040633	58,578	10.46	0.027715	72,615	12.26
76	0.044710	56,198	9.88	0.030631	70,603	11.60
77	0.049152	53,685	9.32	0.033900	68,440	10.95
78	0.054265	51,047	8.77	0.037831	66,120	10.31
79	0.059658	48,277	8.25	0.042249	63,618	9.70
80	0.065568	45,397	7.74	0.047148	60,931	9.10
81	0.072130	42,420	7.25	0.052545	58,058	8.53
82	0.079691	39,360	6.77	0.058685	55,007	7.98
83	0.088578	36,224	6.31	0.065807	51,779	7.44
84	0.098388	33,015	5.88	0.074052	48,372	6.93
85	0.109139	29,767	5.47	0.083403	44,790	6.44
86	0.120765	26,518	5.07	0.093798	41,054	5.99
87	0.133763	23,316	4.70	0.104958	37,203	5.55
88	0.148370	20,197	4.35	0.117435	33,299	5.15
89	0.164535	17,200	4.02	0.131540	29,388	4.76
90	0.182632	14,370	3.72	0.146985	25,522	4.41
91	0.202773	11,746	3.44	0.163592	21,771	4.08
92	0.223707	9,364	3.18	0.181562	18,209	3.78
93	0.245124	7,269	2.96	0.200724	14,903	3.51
94	0.266933	5,487	2.75	0.219958	11,912	3.27
95	0.288602	4,023	2.57	0.239460	9,292	3.05
96	0.309781	2,862	2.42	0.258975	7,067	2.85
97	0.330099	1,975	2.28	0.278225	5,237	2.68
98	0.349177	1,323	2.15	0.296912	3,780	2.52
99	0.366635	861	2.04	0.314727	2,657	2.37
100	0.384967	545	1.93	0.333610	1,821	2.23
101	0.404215	335	1.83	0.353627	1,214	2.09
102	0.424426	200	1.73	0.374844	784	1.96
103	0.445648	115	1.63	0.397335	490	1.84
104	0.467930	64	1.54	0.421175	296	1.72
105	0.491326	34	1.45	0.446446	171	1.61
106	0.515893	17	1.36	0.473232	95	1.50
107	0.541687	8	1.28	0.501626	50	1.40
108	0.568772	4	1.20	0.531724	25	1.30
109	0.597210	2	1.13	0.563627	12	1.21
110	0.627071	1	1.05	0.597445	5	1.12
111	0.658424	0	0.98	0.633292	2	1.03
112	0.691346	0	0.92	0.671289	1	0.95
113	0.725913	0	0.85	0.711567	0	0.88
114	0.762209	0	0.79	0.754261	0	0.80
115	0.800319	0	0.74	0.799516	0	0.74
116	0.840335	0	0.68	0.840335	0	0.68
117	0.882352	0	0.63	0.882352	0	0.63
118	0.926469	0	0.58	0.926469	0	0.58
119	0.972793	0	0.53	0.972793	0	0.53

To scrub this data a little bit, I made the following chart:

Male Life Expectancy By Age
Age	# of lives	Life expectancy	total lifespan
0	100,000	74.12	74.12
20	98,745	54.97	74.97
40	94,422	36.97	76.97
60	82,730	20.47	80.47
70	68,565	13.59	83.59
75	58,578	10.46	85.46
80	45,397	7.74	87.74
85	29,767	5.47	90.47
90	14,370	3.72	93.72
95	4,023	2.57	97.57
100	545	1.93	101.93

Female Life Expectancy By Age
Age	# of lives	Life expectancy	total lifespan
0	100,000	79.78	79.78
20	99,159	60.41	80.41
40	97,215	41.38	81.38
60	90,103	23.67	83.67
70	80,537	15.82	85.82
75	72,615	12.26	87.26
80	60,931	9.1	89.1
85	44,790	6.44	91.44
90	25,522	4.41	94.41
95	9,292	3.05	98.05
100	1,821	2.09	102.09

Key learnings:

83% of men will live to be 60, and of those men, on average they will live to be 80 years old.
45% of men will live to be 80, and of those men, on average they will live to be 87.75 years old.
14% of men will live to be 90, and of those men, on average they will live to be 93.75 years old.

90% of women will live to be 60, and of those women, on average they will live to be 84 years old.
61% of women will live to be 80, and of those women, on average they will live to be 89 years old.
25% of women will live to be 90, and of those women, on average they will live to be 94 years old.

How To Tip The Scales In Your Favor:

Longevity is tied to our daily activities just as our wealth is. It’s not like every American has the “average wealth”. The results are largely determined by the inputs.

No smoking: The lifespan of a smoker is reduced by 10 years to 25 years. Other health factors, length of time being a smoker, and amount of cigarettes smoked per day all play a factor.

No drinking: The average lifespan for heavy drinkers is roughly 6 years shorter than non drinkers.

Don’t be obese: Moderate obesity results in a roughly 3 year reduction in life expectancy, while extreme obesity results in a 14 year reduction in life expectancy.

The difference between being obese and moderately obese is 10 BMI points. Here is a chart based on height:

Height	Overweight	Obese	Morbidly Obese
5′ 2”	137	164	219
5′ 6”	155	186	248
5′ 10”	174	209	279
6′ 2”	195	234	311

This remind me of a funny joke:

Guy 1: I’m planning to live to be 100!
Guy 2: Well do you smoke?
Guy 1: No
Guy 2: Do you drink?
Guy 1: No
Guy 2: Do you chase crazy women?
Guy 1: No
Guy 2: Do you drive fast cars?
Guy 1: No
Guy 2: Then why the hell would you want to live to be 100?!?!

On The positive side:

Exercise: There are several types of exercise that are linked to longevity. Endurance athletes have shown the most increase in longevity. Longevity is tied to Vo2 max, how much oxygen our lungs can process. Long distance runners have a much higher Vo2 max and on average live around 5 years longer than non runners. Sprinting is also a major factor. All animals are supposed to sprint. Run like the wind for 30 seconds, then rest and relax. Then do it a couple more times, 3 times a week.

Eat real food: The average American diet is a composite of the worst possible things humans could conceive of to digest. Sugar in all of its forms, other refined carbohydrates, hydrogenated fat, vegetable oils, preservatives, and artificial coloring are all terrible for us. Replacing pop tarts with sausage and eggs, replacing a big mac meal with lean chicken and rice, replacing jolly ranchers with black berries, will go a great distance towards living a longer life.

Eat less food: Consuming fewer calories is a major indicator of longevity. Consuming fewer calories eliminates obesity and its problems, but also allows the body to clear out the bad stuff when fasting. Study after study have shown that fasting periodically and consuming fewer overall calories leads to a longer life throughout the animal kingdom.

Be rich: Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s investing partner, died at 99 years old. In a recent interview he stated he has gone 99 years without exercising and isn’t going to start any time soon. Being wealthy takes away stress and gives people a lot more options. Becoming wealthy is very helpful to living a long life. Living in a constant stress situation with a scarcity mindset is like being chased by a tiger, non stop, 24 hours a day.

Have a purpose: Imagine this: You are 65 years old. You retired a year ago, have a couple million in the bank and you wake up with nothing to do. So you sit in front of the TV, watch reruns and eat snacks all day. You’ll be dead in 5 years. Having a purpose gives our life meaning. We need to have something to aim for the work towards. We need to have a checklist of things to do each day. We need to add value to others lives. That gives our lives meaning.

Look at Jimmy Carter. Regardless of how you view his politics or presidency, the man has stayed purpose driven in old age. He started the Carter center in 1982 when he was 58 and spent the next 40 years dedicating a major chunk of his time towards eliminated neglected diseases, most notably the guinea worm, which had 3.5 million cases in 1986 and only 13 total in 2023. So far in 2024 there have been ZERO human cases of Guinea worm. He was also heavily involved in Habitat For Humanity and often worked on physically building homes into his 90s.

Have meaningful friendships: Women who outlive their husbands on average live another 12.5 years, for men who outlive their wives, they live another 9.5 years. Part of this is that women tend to be more social and have more friends, while for many men their only friend and constant contact is their spouse.

Planning your life in quarters:

I want to view my adult life in quarters. The first 20 years we don’t have a ton of control over, but our adult life we do. If I plant to live to be 100 my adult life is composed of 4 quarters of 20 years each. I’m still in the first quarter!

Q1: 20 – 40
Q2: 40 – 60
Q3: 60 – 80
Q4 80 – 100

Why Does This Matter:

This matters because a lot of people have the retirement plan of “I’ll just die”. This is a problem because most of these people will not die at 76 or earlier, many will live over a decade longer. Failure to plan for these years will either mean a life of poverty or becoming a burden on family members.

Retirement Savings:

We need to plan for retirement savings to last for a longer amount of time. We can not expect to be able to work until we die, since there are likely fewer jobs available for people in their 70s and 80s. With the average retirement age being 64 and the average life expectancy being 76, this leads many to believe that they only need to prepare for 12 years of retirement costs. For people who live to be 64, they will likely live another 20 years, and very possible they will live 30 more years. This changes the equation dramatically. Retirees should not plan to dip into the principal of their investments, but should have enough money saved that they can live off of the income. I’ve written extensively on how the 4% rule is trash and that a 6% withdrawal rate for most people should be acceptable. For someone needing to generate $40,000 per year this means rather than needing $1 million saved, they will be OK with $667,000.

Social Security:

Social Security is great longevity insurance and for most people it makes sense to delay taking benefits as long as possible, ideally until age 70. This doesn’t mean not retiring until 70. Waiting to take benefits is an automatic 8% return each year. The breakeven point for taking delayed credits for Social Security is age 81.

Estate Planning:

It isn’t uncommon for retirees to gift assets to their children and grandchildren in retirement while they are still alive. This provides gifts to their heirs at times that are more beneficial to them, allows the retirees to see the positive effects their gifts have on their loved ones, and eliminates some tax and probate concerns. The downside is that too much giving too early can put their retirement in jeopardy. For someone planning to live only another decade they may give away too much and then end up living 20 or 30 more years with financial constraints that wouldn’t exist without the earlier giving.

People are living longer and longer, especially those who take care of their health. Over the next 50 years we will see more and more people living to be 100. It is imperative that we plan for a longer life by adequately saving and investing during our working careers for retirements that may last for several decades.